After watching the weather models try to figure out the forecast for the last week or so, you can definitely tell spring is trying to move in. As warmer weather begins its annual battle with winter, the weather models often have a hard time agreeing on just what will happen. This is exactly what’s been happening over the last week or so, as the models swung from a mild, dry forecast to a cold, dry forecast, then to a cold and snowy forecast, and finally back to mild and dry!
This forecast period will start off with a building ridge of high pressure to our southwest, a deep low slowly coming in off the Pacific into Northern Canada, and arctic high pressure to our northeast. This will place us in a westerly to northwesterly flow, which will result in seasonal Pacific air flowing across our region. We should expect highs from Wednesday to Friday to be in the -2 C to +5 C range. How warm it gets on any given day will depend on the amount of sunshine. This is the tough part of the forecast, as weak systems will ripple along the northwesterly flow, bringing with them scattered clouds and the odd flurry or shower.
The weather models show the Pacific low finally tracking across Northern Canada over the weekend. This low, combined with the western ridge of high pressure pushing east, will allow plenty of mild air to flow northward, bringing what should be the warmest temperatures so far this spring. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will likely be close to +12 C, with snow-free areas possibly seeing even warmer conditions.
A cold front on the back side of the northern low will then slide through sometime on Monday, dropping temperatures back down toward more seasonal values. This low is then forecast to deepen over northeastern Canada, placing us in a northerly flow for the rest of the week, which will slowly drop our temperatures back down toward the lower end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -9 to +3 C; lows, -23 to -7 C.