Forecast: Warm with the chance of storms

Issued June 24, 2019: Covering the period from June 26 to July 3

This issue’s map shows the seven-day accumulated precipitation across the Prairies ending June 20. For most regions that have been experiencing drought conditions, it has been a nice wet period. I wish a more up-to-date map was available for printing, as some more significant rains fell on June 21, especially over southern Alberta; Calgary reported over 50 millimetres. North-central Manitoba continues to be dry, with only an additional five to 15 mm falling after June 20.

I’m not sure if I should say this, but it looks more and more like last weekend’s upper low may have finally broken the pattern of colder-than-average temperatures we have been in for several months now. As with all pattern changes, we will have to see if the new warmer pattern can stick, or will it be another short-term change before the atmosphere defaults back to the original pattern?

That said, it definitely looks like summer is moving in with the start of July, as an upper ridge of high pressure builds across the region bringing plenty of sunshine, increasing temperatures and humidity — and of course, with more humidity comes the chances for thunderstorms.

The cool upper-level low pressure that has been dominating our weather is forecast to break down during the second half of this week and will be replaced by a building ridge of high pressure. This ridge looks to peak in intensity on Saturday, which will likely be the warmest day, with a daytime high forecast to be in the low 30s with an overnight low around the 20 C mark. In the days leading up to the weekend, expect sunny to partly cloudy skies, the chance of late-day thunderstorms, and daytime highs climbing by 2 to 3 C each day.

At the surface, the weather models show an area of low pressure tracking through our region late Saturday. Depending on the timing, if this system comes through at peak heating, we could see some severe thunderstorms develop. Any storms that do develop should be gone by Sunday, leaving plenty of sunshine and continued warm temperatures. Another surface low will bring a chance of thunderstorms once again late on Monday before quieter and continued warm weather moves back in for the middle of next week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 21 to 30 C; lows, 10 to 17 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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