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Forecast: Warm, with scattered thunderstorms

Well, for once, our weather over the last forecast period played out fairly close to what the weather models were calling for and we didn’t get hijacked by an upper-level low. What didn’t pan out as forecast was the extreme heat that was expected to move in — at least, not yet.

The weather models have been consistent on building and pushing the upper-level ridge that has been bringing very warm temperatures to our west into our region. This was expected to happen early this week, but, thanks to an area of low pressure that rode overtop of the ridge, partially breaking it down in the process, we have yet to see the really big heat.

Our forecast period will begin with this ridge-rider low bringing lingering showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday as it tracks into Ontario. Eastern regions will see the most clouds and coolest conditions on Wednesday, while far western regions should clear out by the afternoon. High pressure is then forecast to build in on Thursday and Friday, bringing with it sunny and warm temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the upper 20s, with overnight lows in the mid-teens. We could see a few widely scattered thundershowers late Friday and into early Saturday as a weak system slides quickly through.

High pressure will then move back in over the weekend, bringing more sunny skies and warm temperatures. Western regions may see a few clouds and the chance of a thundershower late Sunday as another weak system tries to push into the high, though the probability of this is fairly low. Next week looks to start off very warm and humid, with daytime highs forecast to be in the low 30s and dew points pushing into the low 20s. With all of this heat and humidity we should expect some active weather, with a high likelihood for scattered thunderstorms on any given day.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 22 to 31 C; lows, 10 to 17 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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