Your Reading List

Forecast: Warm with a chance of showers

Issued August 20, 2018: Covering the period from August 22 to August 29

This graphics show temperatures for Winnipeg over the last 365 days along with the long-term average or “normal” temperatures. The top graph shows the daily-average temperature, with red areas being above average and blue below. The second graph shows the 31-day running-mean temperature, which helps to show longer-term trends. We have been in a fairly long period of above-average temperatures that began back in May. The final graph shows the actual daily high and low temperatures.

Last week’s forecast played out fairly well, but with a couple of bumps. The first was the thick upper-level smoke that helped to keep temperatures a little cooler than expected, and the second was cooler-than-expected air that moved in behind last weekend’s trough of low pressure.

This forecast period will begin with a building ridge of high pressure that will bring sunshine and warm temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. Expect daytime highs to climb toward the 30 C mark, with overnight lows falling into the low teens. The weather models then show an area of low pressure developing to our west and tracking through central Manitoba over the weekend. Southern regions could see showers or thundershowers develop as early as Friday, but the best chance for rain looks to be on Saturday. We should expect cloudy to partly cloudy skies on Friday and Saturday along with showers and thundershowers, with the best chance for significant rain being in north-central Manitoba.

As usual, we’ll see cooler air move in behind the low on Sunday and Monday with daytime highs forecast to be around 20 C and overnight lows dropping to the high single digits. For next week, the weather models show a southwesterly flow developing. This will allow for a return to warm temperatures with highs warming back into the mid- to upper 20s. It will also allow for more humidity, with increasing chances of showers and thundershowers as an area of low pressure slowly meanders by to our south.

Looking further ahead, the weather models are not showing any signs of a shift toward cooler fall weather, so it looks like summer will hold on for a bit, at least into the first part of September.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 18 to 28 C; lows, 6 to 14 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



Stories from our other publications