Forecast: Warm weather to build back in

Issued August 14, 2017: Covering the period from August 16 to August 23

This map shows the number of days that locations on the Prairies have received less than 0.5 mm of precipitation so far this growing season (up to Aug. 7). A fairly large portion of the southern and central Prairies has seen 80 to over 100 days with no real precipitation.

Even though I had to create the forecast early last week I was still able to pull off a reasonably accurate one. I would love to take full credit for that, but sometimes you just get lucky. After all, I am just reading weather models and trying to pick which models are doing the best job. It also doesn’t hurt that we’ve been in a blocking pattern, which basically keeps us stable.

For this forecast period it looks like the blocking pattern is going to break down, at least for a few days. The low-pressure system off the West Coast that has been the western anchor to the blocking pattern is forecast to track slowly eastward across Northern Canada, flattening out the ridge of high pressure in the process. This low will drag a trough of low pressure across our region on Wednesday or Thursday, bringing with it clouds and a few showers and thundershowers. The best chances of rain with this trough look to be across the southern portion of the province. Temperatures under the clouds will cool down, with highs expected to be in the low 20s.

By Friday we’ll see high pressure begin to build back into our region as the upper ridge tries to rebuild itself. We should see sunny skies all weekend long, with high temperatures expected to be in the mid- to upper 20s along with fairly light winds.

Confidence in the forecast drops for the first half of next week. The weather models show a slow-moving area of low pressure crossing the northern Prairies. This low should help to pull up some very warm and humid air across southern and central Manitoba from Monday to Wednesday. Some of the weather models show high temperatures in the low 30s along with dew points in the low 20s. With all of that heat and humidity also come the chances for some stronger thunderstorms.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 20 to 28 C; lows, 8 to 14 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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