Forecast: Warm-to-hot weather to dominate

Issued June 18, 2018: Covering the period from June 20 to 27, 2018

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the first 14 days of June. A couple of rounds of severe thunderstorms moving northward across southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan brought significant amounts of rain to those areas. Totals over a large region were in excess of 95 mm, which is more than the monthly average for these locations.

We definitely experienced showers and thundershowers last Friday as predicted, but with warmer-than-expected temperatures, and with higher humidities, the thundershowers became thunderstorms, with some becoming fairly severe across a number of regions.

For this forecast period we’ll see a building ridge of high pressure bring plenty of sunshine and warm/hot temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the upper 20s to low 30s, with overnight lows only dropping into the upper teens. Later in the week a developing area of low pressure to our southwest will begin sending weak waves of energy northeastward. These waves will bring increased humidity, along with the chance of thundershowers or even some severe thunderstorms.

The best chance of severe weather looks to be late on Friday and then again late on Saturday. Each day will start off sunny and warm, with daytime highs pushing into the low 30s. As the heat and humidity increase, so will the chances for severe weather. Right now, there don’t look to be many forcing factors for severe weather, but with all the heat and humidity, the probability of a few strong thunderstorms developing looks pretty good. Overall, any storms that do develop will be small, with only a few regions seeing any significant weather.

Next week looks like it will start off warm/hot and dry as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds across the region. Expect daytime highs to continue to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s under plenty of sunshine. As we work toward the middle to second half of next week, the weather models show a weak area of low pressure moving through our region, bringing with it a mix of sun and clouds along with the chance of showers and thundershowers.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 21 to 29 C; lows, 8 to 16 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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