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Forecast: Warm start, then cooler temperatures

Covering the period from October 8 to 16, 2019

Overall, last week’s forecast was pretty spot on. There was a bit of a timing issue as this week rolled around, but for the most part I was impressed with the accuracy of the forecast.

For this week’s forecast I am happy to say we will see at least a little bit of heat as a temporary ridge of high pressure builds across our region ahead of a developing area of low pressure. We should expect daytime highs to push into the upper teens or even the low 20s on Tuesday or Wednesday before a cold front moves through, bringing a return to cooler temperatures.

The weather models are a little uncertain about the track and intensity of the cold front, along with the associated area of low pressure moving through on Wednesday and Thursday. Southern and central regions will likely see the odd shower or maybe even a snow shower, depending on the timing of the precipitation. One thing is certain: we will see some of the coldest air of the fall move in by Friday. Expect daytime highs to be in the 6 to 10 C range, with overnight lows dropping into the -3 to -5 C range.

The Thanksgiving long weekend is currently looking very nice as the cool ridge of high pressure drifts to our southeast and a weak but broad area of low pressure begins to develop to our west. This will place us in a nice warm southerly flow that should see high temperatures in the mid- to upper teens with overnight lows around the 5 C mark.

Cooler air is then forecast to move in after the long weekend as a cool, but not cold, area of high pressure slowly tries to settle in from the north. The good news with this high is that it should keep us mostly dry; the bad news is that temperatures will run a couple of degrees cooler than average.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 6 to 18 C; lows, -4 to 6 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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