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Forecast: Warm mid-winter weather ahead

Issued January 7, 2018: Covering the period from January 10 to January 17

This map shows the 2018 global temperature anomalies of the lower eight km of the troposphere, based on satellite observation. A large portion of the planet saw warmer-than-average temperatures in 2018. The cold spot over land was centred over northern Quebec, with most of the Canadian Prairies seeing near- to slightly below-average temperatures.

After a snowy start to this week it looks like our old pattern of dry and seasonable weather will move back in for the remainder of this forecast period. It’s always tough to create a forecast when a major weather event is unfolding (I must write the forecasts late Sunday or early Monday morning), as these major systems can significantly impact the weather pattern that follows them. That said, the weather models are in fairly good agreement for this forecast period, leading to a relatively high degree of confidence in this forecast.

Once the early-week storm system moves off to the east, we will see a weak ridge of arctic high pressure nudge down from the north. This should bring sunny to partly cloudy skies on Wednesday along with daytime highs in the -12 to -15 C range and overnight lows in the -20 to -24 C range. A weak area of low pressure is then forecast to slide through our region on Thursday and into Friday, bringing with it cloudy skies along with some flurries or even a centimetre or two of light snow. Temperatures should moderate a little bit with this system with daytime highs around -8 C and overnight lows around -15 C.

Over the weekend and into the first half of next week, the weather models show a building upper ridge of high pressure to our west. This will keep our area dry as any storm systems will be prevented from pushing eastward or will be shunted to our north. The ridge will also allow temperatures to continue to moderate, with daytime highs making it to or even above the freezing mark by Sunday or Monday. We will likely see a mix of sun and clouds Sunday and Monday as the mild air pushes into our region, with clearing skies Tuesday and Wednesday making for some very nice midwinter weather.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -23 to -6 C; lows, -34 to -15 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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