Forecast: Warm-cool weather cycle to persist

Issued October 22, 2018: Covering the period from October 24 to October 31

This map shows the amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the 30-day period ending on October 18 as a per cent of the long-term average. Looking at the map you can quickly see that the southern and central Prairies saw near- to well-above-average amounts of precipitation, with regions in all three Prairie provinces reporting over 200 per cent of average. Far-northern parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta were dry, with precipitation amounts less than 40 per cent of average.

We definitely saw a return of warm and sunny weather this last forecast period. All the right conditions came together last Thursday to bring record-breaking temperatures across much of southern and central Manitoba. While the warm weather only lasted a day before cooler weather moved back in on Friday and Saturday, Sunday did see a return to warm and sunny conditions.

It looks like this pattern of warm and cool weather is going to continue for this forecast period. Fortunately, it looks like it will remain relatively dry, which should help in finalizing any harvesting that still needs to be done. This forecast period will begin with a cool area of high pressure moving off to the east. This will allow milder air to move in from the west. Expect daytime highs to reach towards the 10 C mark from Wednesday to Friday, with overnight lows within a couple of degrees of freezing.

Over the weekend the weather models are showing a weak, disorganized area of low pressure moving through our region. Expect a mixture of sun and clouds along with the chance of the odd daytime shower or overnight flurry. Temperatures look to remain seasonable, with daytime highs in the 7 to 10 C range.

A second weak area of low pressure is then forecasted to track across southern Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday of next week, bringing with it cloudy to partly cloudy skies along with the chance of showers or flurries, depending on the timing of any precipitation. Currently, the weather models are showing less than five mm of precipitation within this system. It looks like skies will clear out by Halloween, but with the clearing will come cooler temperatures and daytime highs forecasted to be in the 3 to 5 C range, with overnight lows around -5 C. Looking further ahead it looks like November will begin with near-average temperatures and only a small chance for any precipitation.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 1 to 13 C; lows: -9 to 2 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 50 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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