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Warm and muggy, followed by cool and wet

Issued Monday, August 18, 2014. Covering August 20 – August 27, 2014

It looks like our weather pattern will undergo some changes over the next week or two. This forecast period will start off on the warm side, but by the weekend temperatures could be getting fairly cool. Don’t worry; it doesn’t look like summer is finished just yet.

By Wednesday of this week the weather models show a large slow-moving area of low pressure developing to our west and southwest. This low will help pump up some nice warm temperatures along with a fair bit of humidity. High temperatures from Wednesday to Friday will be in the upper 20s or possibly even the low 30s if a region gets enough sunshine. It looks like a piece of energy from this western low will lift northeastward on Thursday bringing increasing cloudiness along with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Friday looks to be a bit of a mixed bag of weather as the western low reorganizes and starts to push northeastward.

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Over the weekend the weather looks like it could get interesting. One of the weather models now shows the approaching low getting really strong as it swings to the northeast and moves across southern and central Manitoba. This could result in an outbreak of severe weather sometime Saturday, as the centre of the low moves through. Confidence in this part of the forecast is not that high, as a second model keeps this low much weaker, but it is definitely something to watch for.

Once this low passes by, cold air will be drawn in behind the departing system. Sunday and possibly Monday will likely see mainly cloudy skies along with scattered showers as clouds on the backside of the departing low hang over our region. If the models are correct, temperatures will be very cool with highs in the mid-teens.

For the remainder of next week it looks like skies will clear and we should see more sun than clouds along with warming temperatures. Highs later in the week should be back into the mid- to upper 20s.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 18 to 29 C; lows, 6 to 14 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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