The first part of last week’s forecast played out pretty much as expected and we did end up seeing a pretty nice weekend. After that, the forecast fell apart as the expected area of low pressure was pushed well to our south and an unexpected strong area of arctic high pressure pushed southward as well.
I hope this is not a harbinger of things to come over the next few months, but this forecast period is starting off with a large, strong area of arctic high pressure building into our region. Depending on how fast and how far south this high pushes, there is a good chance we will see an early-fall frost late this week. Currently, the weather models show the centre of this arctic high moving over our region sometime between Thursday and Friday. This means the best chances of seeing frost will be either Thursday or Friday morning, or maybe both, depending on cloud cover. If you don’t want frost, just hope the high is a little weaker than expected and the area of low pressure to our south is stronger. That said, it looks like Thursday and Friday will start off sunny, but skies will quickly become partly to mostly cloudy.
Once this high pushes by next weekend, we should see more sun than clouds over the weekend, along with slowly warming temperatures. I wouldn’t be surprised if high temperatures over the weekend make it into the low 20s.
If we do end up seeing frost this week, then next week looks as if we’ll see a textbook example of Indian summer. A ridge of high pressure is expected to develop to our west and then drift eastward as the week progresses. This should result in mostly sunny skies along with daytime highs in the low to mid-20s, with overnight lows around 10 C. I don’t know about you, but I’m sure hoping we get lucky and miss the frost. That said, I’m not holding my breath!
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 15 to 26 C; lows, 5 to 11 C.
— Reprinted from the Manitoba Co-operator, Sept. 11, 2014.