Temporary cool-down next week?

Issued: Monday, July 13, 2015 – Covering: July 15 – July 22, 2015

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the 30 days ending July 9, as a departure from the long-term average. Only a few small areas in each of the three Prairie provinces have seen average to above-average amounts of rainfall during this period. The vast majority of the Prairies has seen rainfall amounts at least 20 mm below average, with some areas reporting rainfall deficits greater than 60 mm.

Last week’s forecast didn’t play out exactly as the weather models predicted, but that was not unexpected with the slack flow across our region. For those living in the south, the smoke cleared out for the most part, a little earlier than expected, and a slow-moving upper low allowed very warm and humid air to move into our region last weekend.

For this forecast period we’ll begin with warm and continued unsettled weather in place. A warm upper ridge will remain overhead, meaning daytime highs should be in the upper 20s with overnight lows only dropping into the mid- to upper teens. We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds with chances of thunderstorms each day, as a broad area of surface low pressure will be in place across much of Western Canada.

Over the weekend this western low will consolidate and move off to the northeast. As it passes by late on Friday or Saturday, we will see our best chance of thunderstorms before slightly more stable air moves in on Sunday. Temperatures over the weekend still look to be warm, with highs continuing to be in the upper 20s.

The low that passed us by over the weekend will continue to strengthen as it slowly slides to the northeast over Hudson Bay. This will allow cooler air to work into our region to begin next week. The question is, how quickly and how far south will this cool air make it? Currently, it looks like we should start to see cooler temperatures Monday, with the coolest temperatures moving in by Wednesday, where we can expect daytime highs to be in the low 20s and overnight lows around the 10 C mark.

Looking further ahead there is some indication, in the upper-level pattern, of a return to very warm conditions late next week and into the weekend.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 22 to 31 C; lows, 9 to 17 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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