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Forecast: Sunny and milder weather returning

Issued October 15, 2018: Covering the period from October 17 to October 24

This map shows the forecasted temperature anomalies across North America for the seven-day period beginning Nov. 4. This model, known as the CFS (Climate Forecast System) model, is produced by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). So far this year this model has been pretty accurate, predicting general warm and cold episodes. The model shows a warming pattern that is forecast to hit its peak across Western Canada during the first half of November, with temperatures averaging 3 to 4 C above average.

For the first time in a while, the forecast played out pretty close to what was expected, and there is finally some hope on the horizon that we’ll see an end to the month-long period of cool, wet weather in which we’ve been stuck.

For this forecast period, it looks as though we may actually see several days of sunshine along with more seasonable temperatures. The weather models show a sprawling area of high pressure covering the central U.S. for most of this week. This, combined with an area of low pressure tracking across northern Manitoba on Wednesday, will result in southern and central regions seeing mainly sunny skies on Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures warming into the low teens by Thursday. A cold front will sweep southward behind the northern Manitoba low on Friday, bringing with it partly cloudy skies, maybe the odd flurry or shower, and a return to cooler temperatures.

An area of arctic high pressure is then forecast to drop southward over the weekend, bringing with it a return to sunny skies, along with fairly light winds. Temperatures will be cool on Saturday, but as the high drops to our south we should begin to see milder air move in on Sunday. Daytime highs on Sunday are forecast to be in the 8 to 12 C range, with overnight lows in the 0 to -3 C range.

Sunny and dry weather looks to continue into much of next week as a second area of high pressure drops in from the northwest. We may see a bit of a cool-down on Tuesday as the high builds in, but a warm return flow will quickly develop on Wednesday as the high moves off to our southeast. Looking further ahead, the weather models lean toward more mild and dry weather right through to the end of the month — but, like you, I will believe it when I see it!

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 4 to 15 C; lows, -6 to +4 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 40 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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