Summer trying to take hold

The active weather pattern we’ve been in for the last week or so looks as if it will continue for most of this forecast period. This makes it tough to forecast, as the weather models are struggling to come to an agreement on the timing, intensity and track of several different storm systems.

A large ridge of high pressure has formed over the eastern Pacific and this is causing a large trough of low pressure to form over western North America. This trough will be the breeding ground for areas of low pressure. These lows will form to our west and then push eastward every couple of days during this forecast period, keeping our weather fairly active.

This western trough will keep our region in a predominantly southwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere, and while it will try to pull up warm air, it will have trouble making it too far north, with cool high pressure in place to our north.

The first area of low pressure will move through our region on Wednesday. Currently the models are pushing this low through southern regions, which would keep most of the rain over central Manitoba. The models then re-form the low over the Dakotas on Thursday, bringing significant rains to our south. By Friday this low will be pulling off to our northeast and we’ll see cool northerly winds. Depending on rainfall and cloud amounts, some areas could see near-freezing temperatures on Saturday morning.

We should clear out a little bit over the weekend as another weak low is forecast to track along the border on Sunday, bringing some clouds and the odd shower. The models then quiet things down a little bit to start next week, with no significant areas of low pressure expected in our region. With sunny to partly cloudy skies we should see temperatures warm back into the low 20s for highs.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 15 to 27 C; lows, 3 to 12 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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