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Summer To Heat Up?

Well, June sure turned out to be one heck of a month weather-wise! If I had to sum up the month in just a few words it would be east versus west.

This June, weather conditions across agricultural Manitoba were very different depending on where you were.

Over eastern regions, farmers (for a change), saw nearly perfect weather conditions, while to the west things were anything but perfect. Using the three main centres of Winnipeg, Brandon, and Dauphin as our data points – here is how June ended up.

Over eastern regions (represented by Winnipeg) the temperature for June actually came in right on average, with a mean monthly temperature of 17.1 C. To the west, in Brandon, things were a little cooler, with a mean monthly temperature of 15.8 C – nearly 1 below their long-term average. A little farther north in Dauphin, the temperatures were not much better. Dauphin’s mean monthly temperature for June came in at 15 C, which was also nearly 1 below average.

While it was warm over eastern regions and cool over western and central regions, it was the amount of precipitation that was the real story this June. After seeing several years in a row with heavy rainfall in June, the eastern part of agricultural Manitoba got a break.

The total amount of precipitation that fell over this region was about 50 per cent of average. Winnipeg and areas to the east of the city only recorded between 35 and 50 mm of rain during the month, compared to the average amount of around 90 mm.

Out to the west, Brandon saw a whole different story. Typically this region would expect to see about 75 mm of rain during June, but this year, nearly 160 mm of rain fell. More than double the usual amount!

Farther north in Dauphin, it was a little drier, with that region recording rainfall amounts right around their long-term average of 80 mm.

Before we move on to take a look at the long-range forecast for July, let’s look back to see if anyone was able to forecast the strange weather pattern we saw during June.

As I read through the forecasts that were made for June it was hard to pick out a winner. Environment Canada and us here at the

Co-operatorpredicted nearaverage temperatures and precipitation, while theOld Farmers Almanaccalled for below-average temperatures and near-average amounts of rain.

Finally, theCanadian Famers Almanaccalled for above-average temperatures and precipitation. I guess if I had to pick a winner it would be theOld Farmers Almanac, since the greatest portion of our region saw below-average temperatures.

Now, on to the million-dollar question – what will July’s weather be like?

Will the warm start to the month continue? Will the west dry out? Will eastern regions continue to see near-perfect growing conditions?

According to Environment Canada, all areas will see above-average temperatures dur ing July. Western and

northern regions will see nearaverage amounts of rainfall, with eastern regions having the highest chance for aboveaverage amounts of rain.

Over at theOld Farmers Almanac,they are also calling for above-average temperatures, but are leaning towards below-average amounts of rain.

The good old weather prognosticators at theCanadian Farmers Almanacseem to be leaning towards cooler-and wetter-than-average conditions during July, as they ment ion unset tled, fair, cooler, and stormy several times in their forecast.

Finally, here at the Co-operator,I’m going with both EC and theOld Farmers Almanacfor July’s temperature forecast. It looks like warm temperatures are going to be the rule during the month, with an outside chance of seeing some very hot temperatures during the second half of the month.

Precipitation forecasts are always tough in summer as most of the rainfall comes from thunderstorms, and one thunderstorm can bring a whole month’s worth of rain! Considering the warm and active pattern we are currently in, I feel that the month as a whole will see near-average amounts of precipitation, with some localized areas seeing aboveaverage amounts and other areas seeing below-average amounts. Now…as usual, we’ll have to sit back and see what unfolds.

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Now,ontothemillion-dollarquestion whatwillJuly’sweatherbelike?

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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