Idon t think there are many people out there complaining that the last part of last week s forecast was off the mark. The ridge of high pressure rebuilt itself last weekend and brought summer-like temperatures to pretty much all of southern and south-central Manitoba. The forecast then pointed toward a trough of low pressure moving through early this week, bringing an end to the warm, sunny weather. Well, that trough of low pressure has been held off to our west due to a stubborn blocking pattern, leaving us to deal with the ridge of high pressure a little longer.
This ridge of high pressure is now forecast to last right through until Friday or Saturday before the blocking pattern starts to break down, allowing the low pressure building to our west to start making some inroads. Before this happens, it looks like we ll see temperatures running well above the usual temperature range for this time of the year, with a few record highs not out of the question.
By the weekend the western low will have pushed into our region, bringing a mix of sun and clouds along with the chance of some showers. Temperatures will cool down, but will still be seasonably mild, with highs falling to the upper teens by Sunday. Thanksgiving Monday looks like it will be nice, with sunny to partly cloudy skies, along with high temperatures in the upper teens to around 20 C. These warm temperatures will continue into the middle of next week as a strong area of low pressure slowly tracks across northern Manitoba, keeping southern areas in a strong southerly flow of mild air.
Looking further ahead, the models show this northern low carving out a deep trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere over Western Canada. If this happens it will mean a final end to summer in October.
Usual temperature range for this period:
Highs: 7 to 18 C. Lows: -3 to 6 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 15 per cent.
Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park. Contact him with your questions and comments at [email protected]
WEATHER MAP -WESTERN CANADA
Copyright 2011 Agriculture &Agri-Food Canada
1 Month (30 Days) Percent of Average Precipitation (Prairie Region)
August 31, 2011 to September 29, 2011
Prepared by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada s National Agroclimate Information Service (NAIS). Data provided through partnership with Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, and many Provincial agencies.
40 -60% 60 -85% 85 -115% 115 -150% 150 -200%
200% Extent of Agricultural Land Lakes and Rivers
Produced using near real-time data that has undergone initial quality control. The map may not be accurate for all regions due to data availability and data errors.
This issue s map shows the amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies during the month of September as a percentage of the long-term average. From the map you can see that much of Alberta and Saskatchewan saw less than 40 per cent of average rainfall. Conditions were a little wetter over parts of southeastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where average to slightly above-average amounts of rain fell.