It looks more and more like our weather pattern is undergoing a slow but deliberate shift. While the West Coast ridge and East Coast trough are still dominating the weather, there has been an eastern push to the West Coast ridge, while the trough to our east begins to weaken.
What this means for our weather is a much more active weather pattern. We’ve seen this over the last week or so, as areas of low pressure spin up to our west and quickly move through. Earlier this year, these lows would have spun up farther west, then died out as they approached us; now they’re deepening as they approach us, then weakening as they push east.
For this forecast period it looks like we’ll see a repeat of the last seven to 10 days. The only differences are that the sun angle is higher, resulting in warmer temperatures, and the storm track looks as if it is shifting to our north. A strong area of low pressure is expected to track through north-central Manitoba on Wednesday, bringing only cloudy skies with a few showers to southern regions. There could be a little light snow overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning as the low pulls off to the east. Weak high pressure will build in behind this low on Thursday and Friday, bringing sunny but slightly cooler conditions.
Over the weekend, a weak area of low pressure will slide through, bringing with it only a slight chance of showers or flurries, depending on the timing of the system. Arctic high pressure is then forecast to drop in to start next week, which means plenty of sunshine but cool temperatures, with daytime highs only making it to around +5 C and overnight lows around -10 C. Luckily, it looks like the arctic high will keep any major storm systems to our south, so all in all, not a bad forecast.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -2 to +11 C; lows, -12 to -1 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 65 per cent.