Forecast: Seasonable with a chance of some rain

Issued May 20, 2019: Covering the period from May 22 to May 29

Percentage of average precipitation for the period from April 1 to May 16, 2019.

Surprisingly, last week’s forecast didn’t turn out too bad, considering all the differences between the weather models last weekend. Not sure what the better trade-off was: cool and dry, or cool and wet? From my observations, it seems like most of the planting has been done, and while there is OK soil moisture, things are starting to dry out.

We seem to be stuck in a rather unusual weather pattern: high pressure to our north, and an unusually strong storm track to our south. The northern high is both a blessing and a curse as it has been giving us below-average temperatures, but at the same time it has kept us from receiving large amounts of rain. It looks like this pattern is going to continue for this forecast period, with the big question being whether any of the southern storm systems will push far enough north to bring us significant rain.

The first southern low will try to push northward Wednesday, but it looks like it will weaken and move off to the east, bringing only clouds and a few showers to extreme southern regions. Thursday looks to be sunny as high pressure builds back in. Temperatures look to be seasonable as the strong late-spring sunshine continues to warm the air. Expect highs to be near the 20 C mark with overnight lows around 5 C. On Friday, the weather models show another low forming to our south and pushing northward. This low looks like it will make it a little farther north, bringing a good chance of rain to southern regions sometime Friday and possibly into the first part of Saturday. Some regions could see as much as 20 mm of rain from this system.

Sunny to partly cloudy skies will then move in later Saturday and stick around into the first part of next week. Temperatures look to continue to be near or slightly below average, with highs right around 20 C and lows around 5 C.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 15 to 26 C; lows, 2 to 12 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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