Once again Mother Nature played her own game last week, as the weak system that was forecast to hit southwestern Manitoba last Thursday ended up being stronger and farther north than anticipated. This brought a good five to 10 centimetres of snow to much of southern and central Manitoba late last week.
As predicted, the western ridge did weaken, allowing warmer air to move into the forecast area over the weekend and into the early part of the week. By Wednesday, the weather models show a strong area of low pressure moving out of the U.S. Midwest toward Eastern Canada. Behind this system an area of arctic high pressure will be building south. This arctic high will begin moving into our area late on Wednesday, and by Thursday we should be firmly back into the cold air.
Luckily, the centre of this area of high pressure should be to our west, which means that the coldest temperatures should stay to our west. This high also looks as if it will move through quickly, which means the cold weather will only stick around until late Friday or Saturday.
With a much weaker western ridge in place we’ll not see as much cold arctic air trying to push south during the second half of this forecast period. Temperatures should moderate back to more seasonable values, with high temperatures expected to be in the -10 C range. It also looks like the weekly snow machine will be turned off for a while, as none of the models predict any significant snowfall.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -21 to -5 C; lows, -32 to -13 C.