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Forecast: Seasonable weather start to November

Issued October 29, 2018: Covering the period from November 1 to November 6

This map shows the amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies since the beginning of September as a departure from the long- term average. Overall, it has been a wet fall across a large part of the Prairies, with north-central Alberta, along with southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba being the wettest areas. Precipitation across these regions ranged from near to as much as 50 mm above average.

Last week’s forecast played out pretty well, with only slight differences in the timing of the systems impacting the weather. For this forecast period, it looks like the fairly nice fall weather is going to continue, with temperatures fluctuating between slightly below average to a little above average. For those regions that are still needing some dry weather, if you can dodge the chance of showers or flurries early on in the forecast, then things are looking not too bad.

This forecast period will begin with a few flurries as an area of low pressure that tracked through central regions earlier in the week slowly pulls off into northern Ontario. The weather models then forecast another area of low pressure developing over northern Alberta and quickly tracking southeastwards on Thursday and Friday. Depending on the exact track and strength of this system, parts of southern and central Manitoba will see either a quick shot of rain or a light dusting of snow. Due to the speed of the system, amounts at this point look to be low.

Over the weekend and into the first half of next week the weather models are showing a strong area of arctic high pressure developing to our north. This high is forecasted to strengthen over the weekend and then slowly slide into northern Ontario during the first half of next week. This will place us on the southern edge of this system, which should help to keep any precipitation to our south. We should expect temperatures to be near to slightly below the long-term average, with daytime highs in the +1 to +4 C range and overnight lows around -6 C. We should see more sun than clouds as a system passing by to our south on Sunday and Monday tries to push some clouds and moisture into our region.

Looking further ahead, the models are showing us staying dry right through to next weekend and into the first full week of November, with temperatures continuing to be near or slightly above average.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: -2 to 10 C, Lows: -11 to 1 C Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 60 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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