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Forecast: Seasonable weather, but continued dry spell

Issued May 6, 2019: Covering the period from May 8 to May 15

This map shows the percentage of average precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies during the 30 days ending May 2. Not sure how long these maps are going to keep showing below-average amounts of precipitation over large portions of the Prairies. The parts of southeastern Alberta and much of southern Saskatchewan hit by a late-April snowstorm show up nicely as one of the only areas with near- to above-average amounts. The question is, when will these dry conditions begin to have an impact on this year’s growing season?

It finally looks like we are almost done dealing with a large upper-level low that has been controlling our weather over the last couple of weeks. The main upper low did track across north-central Manitoba over the weekend as predicted, but instead of moving off into Quebec, it looks like it will meander over Hudson Bay and Nunavut over the next week, impacting our weather over the short term.

The persistent upper-level low to our north will keep our region under a predominantly northwesterly flow. While this pattern will keep us mostly dry, temperatures will continue to be on the cool side. Weak high pressure will build in on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing with it sunny skies in the morning and transitioning to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Temperatures will be on the cool side for this time of the year with daytime highs forecast to be in the 10 to 13 C range with overnight lows around the 0 C mark.

On Friday, an area of low pressure will develop over northern Alberta and quickly track to the southeast. We will see increased clouds early in the day, with a few scattered showers moving through the region in the afternoon and evening. Once this low passes by, it looks like the flow across our region will become more westerly. This will allow for mild air to begin working its way in over the weekend. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies on Saturday and Sunday, with daytime highs forecast to be in the mid- to upper teens and overnight lows in the 2 to 5 C range.

Seasonable temperatures look to continue into the first part of next week as we get sandwiched between cool high pressure to our north and a large area of low pressure to our south. Looking further ahead, the weather models show a warming trend toward the end of next week, with high temperatures forecast to move into the low 20s.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 11 to 24 C; lows, 0 to 9 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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