Last weekend s storm system came in exactly on time, but, as is usual with big storms, it ended up taking a track that none of the models predicted. Instead of moving to the northeast as these systems usually do, it drifted almost due north. The result of this was more precipitation over western and northern regions and less out east. Either way, by the time it was all over on Monday, a good portion of Manitoba had seen the first real snowfall of the year.
The weather models have slowly been switching to a more winter-like pattern over the past week. As we move deeper into November it is inevitable that we ll eventually see colder temperatures. This forecast period will start off with a large region of high pressure building to our south, but it will be a little farther south than first anticipated. At the same time, low pressure developing to our west does not look to be as strong as originally forecast, which means we ll not see a strong push of warm air this week. This will result in high temperatures on most days struggling to make it to the freezing mark, with overnight lows in the -7 to -12 C range.
Over the weekend a piece of the western low is forecast to track across the southern Prairies, bringing with it some light snow. Central regions will see the best chance of some small accumulations. Colder air will work in behind this system, with highs to start next week only expected to be around -5 C.
The weather models then hint at another Colorado-type low developing and pushing northeast around the middle of next week. Confidence in this system is very low right now, but with an active pattern developing it is certainly worth watching.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -7 to 6 C. Lows, -15 to -3 C.
Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 85 per cent.
Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park. Contact him with your questions and comments at [email protected]