The weather models have really been struggling with the overall pattern over the last week. For the first part of this forecast period, things look fairly quiet. Weak high pressure in place across our region, combined with a large area of low pressure well to our northeast, will bring a mix of sun and clouds with the chance of some flurries for the period of Wednesday to Friday. Temperatures will be on the mild side with highs around or just below the freezing mark.
Over the weekend, we ll have to watch what happens to a storm system that is forecasted to come ashore on the West Coast and then move rapidly across the continent. This is where the weather models have really been having trouble.
At one point, they showed a fairly significant storm affecting our region, it then flipped and showed little if any snow. Now the models are starting to point back towards a storm system developing over the weekend. Currently they show this storm hitting regions south of the border, with extreme southern and eastern parts of Manitoba seeing the best chance of snow.
Once this system pushes by on Sunday or Monday we can expect colder air to move in, with highs falling into the -10 C range and overnight lows dropping to around -18 C. Luckily, it looks like these cold temperatures will be short lived as warmer conditions begin to build in by the second half of next week.
Looking further ahead, the weather models are keeping our region fairly mild right through to the end of November, with high temperatures of between -5 C and 0 C currently forecasted for most days.
Usual Temperature Range for this Period:Highs: -10 to 3 C Lows: -19 to -6 C
Probability of precipitation falling as snow:95 per cent
Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the UofW. Heoperates acomputerized weather station near Birds Hill Park. Contact him with your questions and comments at [email protected]
WEATHER MAP -WESTERN CANADA
Copyright 2011 Agriculture &Agri-Food Canada
1 Month (30 Days) Percent of Average Precipitation (Prairie Region)
October 11, 2011 to November 9, 2011
Prepared by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada s National Agroclimate Information Service (NAIS). Data provided through partnership with Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, and many Provincial agencies.
40 -60% 60 -85% 85 -115% 115 -150% 150 -200%
200% Extent of Agricultural Land Lakes and Rivers
Produced using near real-time data that has undergone initial quality control. The map may not be accurate for all regions due to data availability and data errors.
This issue s map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the three Prairie provinces as a percentage of the long-term average over the 30-day period ending on Nov. 9. From the map you can see that it has been fairly dry across much of the Prairies, with a good portion seeing less than 40 per cent of average (red regions). There were only a few scattered locations in Saskatchewan and Manitoba that saw near to slightly above-average amounts of precipitation.