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Forecast: Our blah weather pattern continues

Issued November 26, 2018: Covering the period from November 28 to December 5

As far as weather forecasts have turned out lately, last week’s forecast wasn’t too far off. We did see some milder weather move in late last week and there were a few flurries over the weekend. What didn’t turn out as well were the temperatures, as slightly cooler-than-forecast air moved in over the weekend and into the first part of this week.

Overall, we seem to be kind of stuck in what I would call a boring or blah weather pattern. Cold, but not too cold, with little snowfall but plenty of clouds. For most people who I have talked to, the persistent cloudy weather is the most annoying thing. For this forecast period, I’m not sure just how much sunshine we’ll see, and for those of you who want more snow, it doesn’t look like there will be much of that either.

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This forecast period will begin with clouds as an area of low pressure tracks across central Manitoba. Central regions may see a couple of centimetres of snow, with southern regions only receiving a dusting. Southwestern regions may see some mixed precipitation as warm air is pulled up from the south on Thursday. By the weekend, weak arctic high pressure will build into the region bringing a return to average or slightly below-average temperatures. Daytime highs are forecast to be in the -8 C range with overnight lows around -16 C or a little cooler if we end up with clear skies at night. Just like last week’s forecast, high pressure should mean plenty of sunshine, but so far that just hasn’t happened. So to play it safe, I am going to go with cloudy to partly cloudy skies.

Looking further ahead, the weather models give a bit of a mixed message, with some of the models indicating a warming trend while others point toward continued cooler-than-average temperatures. Hopefully by next issue, December’s forecast will become a little clearer.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -14 to 0 C; lows, -24 to -9 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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