The weather page is prepared by Daniel Bezte. Dan has a BA Honours degree in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He has taught climate and weather classes at the U of W, and is a guest climate expert on CJOB’s morning show with Larry Updike. Daniel runs a computerized weather station on his 10 acres near Birds Hill Park, which he plans to develop into a small vegetable and fruit hobby farm.
Daniel welcomes questions and comments at [email protected]
Well, after spending nearly all spring and summer talking about how cool and annoying the weather has been, I just have to take some time to talk about how nice the weather has been this past few weeks.
After going through what some have dubbed the year without a summer, pretty much all of agricultural Manitoba has now finally experienced some real summer-like weather. The warm, sunny weather moved in during the last couple of days of August and, for the most part, has been sticking around ever since. Oh, some areas did get hit by thunderstorms, which brought some heavy rains during this period and caused some trouble. But for most regions, the warm, dry weather has literally been a godsend.
Throughout the first three weeks of September all three of our main regions (Winnipeg, Brandon, and Dauphin) have seen temperatures running around 7C above the long-term average for this month. In fact, so far, September has been the warmest month of the year! Again, all three regions are about 2.0C warmer now than they were in August. While we probably won’t end up being warmer than August (a tough thing to pull off in September) it does look like we have a good chance of breaking the record for the warmest September on record.
There are a number of different ways to measure how warm a month can be. We can measure what the mean high temperature is for a month, the mean low temperature, and the overall mean temperature. You can also look at how many cooling degree days there have been, growing degree days, and corn heat units.
For our three regions I have access to the first three measurements and here is what I found.
Warmest Mean Max.
Warmest Mean Min. Warmest
I doubt that any region will break the warmest high temperature for the month, as we would need to have high temperatures each day in the 24 to 27C range and that is very unlikely to happen.
Unfortunately it is a little more difficult finding records for our other methods of determining how warm a month is. Using my own weather station which
9.8C 1931 16.8C 1948
7.8C 1978 16.4C 1897
Up to September 21 of 2009 here are the approximate readings:
Warmest Mean Max.
Warmest Mean Min. Warmest Mean
I know there is still a little over a week left in the month, but with a forecast leaning towards a continuation of nice weather until at least the weekend, it looks like all three regions will have a good shot at breaking the all-time record for mean September temperature – and these are all fairly old records!
There is also a chance that all three regions could break the warmest overnight low temperature record for September, with Winnipeg and Brandon having the best chance. For this to happen we can only afford to have one or two cold nights between now and the end of the month.
9.3C 1940 16.6C 1940
records cooling degree days, I have now recorded 50 cooling degree days, which is more cooling days than any other month this year. Looking back over the 11 years of records that I have for my site, I have not seen a September even close to having this many cooling degree days.
Now the question is, have we finally turned the corner and are now entering a period of warmer-than-average temperatures or are we going to slip back into our colder-than-average temperatures again? Personally, I’ll need a few more weeks of this warm stuff before I’ll be convinced that we have.