November Weather – A Sign Of The Winter To Come?

CITY

WINNIPEG

BRANDON

DAUPHIN

MEAN MAX TC

7.0 (6.4 1999)

6.7 (6.7 1939)

7.6 (6.4 1981)

MEAN MIN TC

-5.5 (-3.5 1981)

-7.3 (-7.3 1953)

-4.0 (-3.7 2001)

MEAN TC

0.7 (1.0 1981)

-0.3 (0.7 1917)

1.8 (0.8 1981)

Iknow last issue I said I would continue our look at El Nińo, and we will, but first we have to take our “end of the month” look at the weather and try to look ahead to see what December might hold for us in the weather department.

As I write this there is still one day left in the month, but unless something very strange happens it looks like Agricultural Manitoba will break a few monthly temperature records this November.

It has been an interesting year so far. Most of the months have been below average, but so far, the two months that have been above average are not just above average, but at record levels. Keeping in mind that I had to guess at the data for the last day of the month, here are the November temperatures for our three main regions – Dauphin, Brandon, and Winnipeg, along with the records (note – the record maximums are in brackets).

We can see from the data that Dauphin was the overwhelming hot spot, shattering its mean maximum November temperature record by 1.2C, and also shattering the mean monthly temperature by a full degree. Winnipeg was the next warmest as it also broke its mean November maximum temperature by 0.6C. Brandon was the “cool” spot as it was only able to tie the monthly record for mean daytime highs.

As usual , when we see really mild temperatures during November, we tend to see little if any precipitation. Historical record minimum precipitation for all three regions is zero mm. Both Dauphin and Winnipeg recorded some precipitation during November (less than three mm), so did receive slightly more than the recorded minimums. Brandon, on the other hand, has not recorded any measurable precipitation so far, meaning that precipitation in November 2009 tied the historical minimum at this location.

So, who is able to predict this warm, dry weather? Looking back at the four different forecasts it looks like both Environment Canada and ourselves here at the Co-operator called it correctly. The Old Farmers Almanac was way off, with its prediction of extremely cold temperatures to end the month, and the forecast of thunderstorms in late November by the Canadian Farmers Almanac – well, that didn’t happen either; there goes their 80 per cent accuracy… oh wait, that disappeared a couple of months ago!

Now, will we see a continuation of this record warm weather or will Old Man Winter finally move in and make us pay for November?

It seems like the good folks over at Environment Canada are sticking with the El Nińo forecast with a call for a continuation of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation. Over at the Old Farmers Almanac they are going in the opposite direction, with a call for well below-average temperatures and above-average amounts of precipitation (sounds like a white Christmas to me).

My favourite forecasters at the Canadian Farmers Almanac seem to be leaning towards average temperatures as they mention very cold temperatures, but they also call for rain several times. Along with the call for rain they are also calling for snow fairly often, which would suggest to me that precipitation amounts will be above average.

Finally, here at the Co-operator, I am leaning towards near-average temperatures. It looks like winter will try to establish itself early in the month, but I think El Nińo conditions will return at some point, resulting in average temperatures. Precipitation is always a difficult forecast as one storm system can take a month from well below average to well above average, but if I had to guess, I would lean toward near to slightly below-average amounts for the month.

Next week we will return to our look at El Nińo.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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