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Milder weather should win out

Issued: Monday, Jan. 17, 2015 – Covering: Jan. 21 – Jan. 28, 2015

The fragile weather pattern I talked about last week seems to have stabilized for the time being, which means more nice winter weather ahead.

For this forecast period, we’re kind of caught between well-above-average temperatures to our west, thanks to a strong area of low pressure off the coast of Alaska combined with a ridge of high pressure over the western U.S., and colder temperatures to our east. These two systems should work together to keep most of the arctic air shunted to our north and east, keeping our temperatures, for the most part, on the mild side.

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Under this pattern the overall flow across our region will be from the northwest. There will be several weak areas of low pressure that will break off from the West Coast low, then ripple southeastward in the flow. Predicting the timing and strength of any of these lows will be difficult, but due to the nature of the current weather pattern all the lows should remain weak. As each low approaches, temperatures will moderate, possibly to near or even above the 0 C mark. Behind the low we’ll see quick shots of cooler air; how cool will depend on the strength and exact path of the preceding low. Right now it doesn’t look like we’ll see any strong pushes of cold air.

The first low looks like it will track through on Thursday and Friday with a second low moving through late in the weekend. It now looks like a third low will follow quickly on the heels of the weekend system, moving through late Monday. Looking further ahead, the weather models are still not showing any strong storm systems affecting our region right through to the early part of February.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -21 to -5 C; lows, -31 to -15 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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