Issued: Monday, October 26, 2009 Covering: October 28 –November 4

Idon’t know if this is my favourite or least favourite time of the year to try and forecast. It’s my favourite because we are moving into the early-winter storm season and our weather pattern tends to get pretty active. It’s my least favourite because the weather models can change not only daily but sometime almost hourly.

This second point seems to be the case for this forecast period. The general pattern over the next five to 10 days is holding fairly constant, but the details of what will happen are all over the place. The one thing that is looking fairly certain is that winter is going to show up earlier rather than later. The big question is, will it come with a lot of snow, just a little bit, or none at all?

The system we will have to watch is an area of low pressure that will be pushing in from the Pacific during the first part of this week. The first piece of energy from this system will bring a chance of showers or overnight flurries to our region beginning late on Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. This system will then break apart and this is when the forecast becomes interesting.

Worst-case scenario would be that the southern part of this storm system becomes the most dominant. The southern low could develop into a Colorado Low and move northeast. This would bring a very good chance for snow over western regions and rain over eastern regions on Friday and Saturday – just in time for Halloween. Best-case scenario would break the system apart with the southern low staying well south of us resulting in us only seeing light shower or flurry activity on Friday and Saturday.

In either case it looks like cold air will pour in behind this system bring winter-like temperatures with highs remaining below freezing and overnight lows in the minus teens.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 0 to 11C Lows: -9 to 1C

Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 60 per cent

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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