Issued: Monday, November 3, 2008 Covering: November 5 –November 12

The weather page is prepared by Daniel Bezte. Dan has a BA Honours degree in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He has taught climate and weather classes at the U of W, and is a guest climate expert on CJOB’s morning show with Larry Updike. Daniel runs a computerized weather station on his 10 acres near Birds Hill Park, which he plans to develop into a small vegetable and fruit hobby farm.

Daniel welcomes questions and comments at [email protected]

Last week’s hint that we might see some measurable rain during the second half of this week looks like it might just come true. The big question now is whether it will be mostly rain, snow or some kind of mixed bag.

The weather models have been fairly consistent with developing an area of low pressure to our southwest early this week. This low is then forecast to slowly push toward the Great Lakes by Saturday. As with most storm systems, the exact track is still a little uncertain, but this will definitely be a system worth watching.

Here’s how it looks like it might play out. Rain will begin to move into southern areas late Tuesday or early on Wednesday. Over western regions this rain will likely change to wet snow on Wednesday night and then remain as heavy, wet snow on Thursday. The potential for significant accumulations of snow does exist for western regions. Over eastern areas the switch over to snow will probably not occur until late on Thursday. By then most of the precipitation will have pulled out of the area so only light accumulations of snow are expected.

Either way, it looks like most of southern Manitoba will see significant precipitation from this system, with some models hinting that some areas could see upwards of 50 mm of rain with the possibility of 25 cm of wet snow over western areas.

By Saturday this system will have finally pulled away to the east. High pressure will build southward behind the low, bringing clearing skies and colder conditions. Overnight lows by Sunday will likely be in the -10C range, with daytime highs for the beginning of next week likely staying below zero.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: -4 to 7C. Lows: -13 to -2C.

Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 80 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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