Issued: Monday, May 11, 2009 Covering: May 13 –May 20

The weather models had a tough time with the multiple areas of low pressure that brought the cool weather to our region late last week, but they appear to still be correct about a strong storm system to affect our region this week.

Low pressure is forecast to push through south-central Manitoba on Wednesday and bring a good chance of showers to southern regions and rain or even some wet snow to northern parts of agricultural Manitoba. Since some of this precipitation will be convective in nature, it will be a tough call on just how much rain will fall and where. Some regions may only see a couple of showers bringing a few millimetres of precipitation, while other regions could see significant rains, with upward of 20 to 30 mm not out of the question.

Once this system pushes by, we will see cold air move in on Thursday and Friday and once again overnight flurries could be possible. By the long weekend we should see high pressure build in and under the strong spring sunshine we should see temperatures improve with highs in the upper teens by Sunday or Monday. Southwestern areas will be the warmest, with the northwest being the coolest.

The first part of next week is a little up in the air right now, as warm air begins to build to our southwest. The question is, will this warm air be able to push into our region or will the cool air win out? I feel that if the warm air doesn’t win out during the first half, it should by the second half and we should finally see some nice-mild weather.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 13 to 25C. Lows: 0 to 10C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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