The models certainly were correct over a week ago when they started to point towards a major spring storm for our region early this week. The problem now is trying to create a forecast for the upcoming week when this storm system is still evolving. The reason creating a forecast will be so difficult is that this storm system will not only be the main weather maker for our region, but also the main weather controller. What this storm system does will have a major impact on the weather over most of this forecast period.
With that said, here is how it is currently looking like it will play out. The weather models have this low taking until Thursday to finally pull out of our neighbourhood. As is usual with any storm system, we will see a push of cold arctic air behind this system. Temperatures late in the week and over the weekend will be fairly cool with overnight lows around -10 to -15C, with daytime highs struggling to make it to the freezing mark.
A second strong area of low pressure is then expected to develop to our south over the weekend, but current indications are that it will remain well to our south and east. This low will help to keep us in the cool air for the first part of next week as our winds remain northerly.
It then looks like we will see a warmup towards mid-week as low pressure starts to organize to our west. We should see a strong southerly flow develop ahead of this system pushing temperatures back towards the high end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year. Looking beyond this period the models are showing this western low moving in during the second half of next week bring a good chance of more significant precipitation. Let’s hope the models are wrong!
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: -5 to +8C Lows: -16 to -2C
Probability of precipitation falling as rain: 20 per cent.