This forecast period starts off with a rather strong upper-level low tracking across southern and central Manitoba. Fortunately for us, this low doesn’t look as though it will linger as they tended to do this spring; it should move out by Thursday. Thursday will see a mix of sun and clouds, with western areas seeing more sun than clouds.
On Friday a weak area of high pressure will move over the region and we should see a nice summer day, but then the forecast gets a little tricky. Typically in the summer, weather forecasting is fairly straightforward, but with the active pattern we are in this year, the forecast is anything but straightforward.
Over the weekend, weak high pressure should be in place, continuing the nice summer weather from Friday, but the models indicate we could see thunderstorms develop overnight Friday lasting into Saturday which, if the storms do develop, would then wash out Saturday as a nice day.
This nice summer weather should then continue into the early part of next week as high pressure continues to linger across the region. Even with high pressure in place over us, the models continue to show chances for showers or thunderstorms almost every day as weak upper-level disturbances push through. These systems will be hit and miss, depending on how strong they become and exactly when they push through on any given day.
Looking further ahead, the models are pointing toward a sustained heat wave developing late next week.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 22 to 31 C. Lows: 10 to 17 C.