Issued: Monday, December 14, 2009 Covering: December 16 –December 23

For those of you wishing for more snow, this forecast will not make you very happy. If you are wishing that these cold temperatures would go away and our El Nińo winter would return, you might have something to smile about.

Confidence in this forecast is not that high as the weather models have been jumping around with their medium-to long-range forecasts. The last few model runs have been a little more consistent and seem to be leaning towards a return to milder weather in about a week.

Over the next seven days our weather is going to be dominated by a narrow ridge of high pressure extending from the Arctic southeastwards into the northern states. Along the West Coast a semi-stationary area of low pressure will be spinning off pieces of energy. Normally, this would bring us plenty of chances for snow, but with the high pressure in place over our region, these pieces of energy weaken rapidly as they approach, only giving us a light dusting of snow, if anything at all.

We will see a light dusting of snow during the second half of this week along with some slightly milder temperatures. These milder temperatures (highs around -10 to -14C) will continue into next week as high pressure continues to dominate. Later next week, the models are showing the area of high pressure weakening, along with a broad area of low pressure moving on shore from the Pacific. This looks like it will bring warmer conditions for Christmas with highs possibly warming to around the -5C range. While this low looks like it will weaken rapidly as it approaches, there might be enough energy remaining to bring us some Christmas Day snow.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: -18 to -2C Lows: -29 to -12C

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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