Well, the promise of hot weather last week vanished just like the sunshine as a persistent blocking pattern over North America amplified last week. This allowed the eastern North American low to deepen and kept us under a strong northwest flow. In the flow we saw several smaller lows develop and affect our region.
During this forecast period, I do not see the general pattern changing significantly. It does look like it might weaken with the western ridge flattening out and the eastern low weakening and moving a little farther away. This will result in a more westerly flow across our region which should allow temperatures to warm back into the mid-20s for highs – if we can get sunshine.
This pattern, while weaker, will still be prone to the development of areas of low pressure. These lows will affect our region every three to four days bringing with them the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
As usual, the models keep trying to bring in warm-hot weather, likely for the same reason we keep expecting it – it should be warm-hot. This time it looks a little more realistic as they show the western ridge beginning to slowly shift eastwards as the eastern North America low continues to weaken and slide off to the northeast. All in all the weather pattern appears that it will be finally transitioning from a very spring-like pattern into what might hopefully be summer. Only time will tell if our misery will end.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 21 to 30C Lows: 8 to 16C