Forecast: Hot, but with the chance of rain

Issued May 21, 2018: Covering the period from May 23 to May 30, 2018

This map shows precipitation percentiles for the period of April 1 to May 17. You can quickly see how incredibly dry spring has been here in southern Manitoba, with a trend toward increasing moisture as you move west.

My weather forecasts seem to be starting off the same every week now. Last week’s forecast was nearly bang on, except for a little more rain over eastern regions last Friday. For this forecast period, it is going to feel more like mid-summer rather than late spring. While the hot weather will not help those areas that are dry, it does look like the heat will be accompanied by a little more humidity and some chances for rain.

To begin this forecast period, we’ll continue to see a building ridge of high pressure across much of Western and Central Canada. This upper ridge will keep temperatures near the top end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year. On Thursday and Friday we will see a surge of moisture in the form of a broad area of low pressure pushing northward from the south-central U.S. in southern and central Manitoba. This will bring a mix of sun and clouds along with a good chance of seeing showers and thundershowers.

This low will temporarily flatten the upper ridge, but it will quickly rebuild over the weekend, bringing a return to sunshine and warm/hot temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. With a general increase in humidity levels the odd late-day thundershower over the weekend can’t be ruled out.

For next week, we will continue to feel the effects of the upper ridge in the form of well-above-average temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the upper 20s to around 30 C, with overnight lows in the 10 to 15 C range. The weather models show another surge of moisture and energy coming up out of the U.S. around the middle of the week. This time it looks like the system will move into Saskatchewan before sliding eastward during the second half of the week. Should this pan out, expect to see more widespread showers and thundershowers to end the week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 16 to 27 C; lows, 3 to 13 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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