Forecast: Hot, but no more records

Issued August 13, 2018: Covering the period from August 15 to August 23

This issue’s map shows the temperature anomaly (difference between actual temperatures and the long-term average) across the U.S. and south-central Canada for Saturday, Aug. 11 in the afternoon. The hottest temperatures, compared to average, stretched from southern and central Saskatchewan, across the southern half of Manitoba and into northeastern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario. Temperatures over much of this region were between 10 and 16 C above average.

After a record-breaking heat wave, even warmer-than-average temperatures might feel a little on the cool side. This forecast period will begin with an area of high pressure working its way across the Prairies, bringing mainly sunny skies and a return to warm temperatures.

This area of high pressure will slide from Manitoba on Wednesday to northeastern Ontario by Friday and will help to give us mainly sunny skies, along with daytime highs warming back toward the 30 C mark by Thursday. These warm temperatures will continue into the weekend, with daytime highs remaining in the upper 20s to around 30 C.

We will see a trough of low pressure slowly work its way across our region over the weekend. This trough will bring a mix of sun and clouds along with the odd shower or thundershower on both Saturday and Sunday. There is the chance for a few severe thunderstorms if enough moisture can work its way northward along the trough.

There is not a lot of confidence in next week’s forecast as the weather models have shown some wild swings in what they are forecasting for this period. The models have been jumping between stormy and wet, average late-summer weather, and a return to hot and dry. The latest model run has pulled back on the hot and dry forecast and is now leaning toward more average conditions. It looks like we will continue to see sunny and dry conditions for next week, with temperatures starting off cool on Monday and Tuesday as cooler air works in behind the departing trough of low pressure. Temperatures then look to slowly warm, back into the mid- to upper 20s by the second half of the week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 20 to 28 C; lows: 8 to 14 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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