Last week’s forecast turned out to be fairly accurate; the only thing that was off was the amount of warming we saw on Sunday and Monday. The first half of this forecast period will be controlled by a large area of low pressure that will develop to our west. While the weather models have been fairly consistent with this low developing, they have been having a heck of a time trying to figure out just what this low will do.
Currently, the weather models show this low slowly pushing eastward as the week progresses, with new centres of low pressure forming and re-forming to our west. This will place us in a predominantly southerly to southwesterly flow for most of this week, resulting in warm temperatures and increasing humidity levels. Wednesday to Friday should see high temperatures in the low to mid-20s, with increasing amounts of clouds on each successive day.
By the May long weekend, the models show the western low finally pushing through our region. The system looks as if it will break into two pieces, with one moving through north-central Manitoba and the other over North Dakota. A trough and front will connect these two systems and this will bring clouds, showers and thunderstorms to most areas on Saturday.
Currently it looks like things will clear out sometime on Sunday as high pressure begins to move in. Unfortunately, cooler air will also move in and we can expect high temperatures to only be in the upper teens. By Monday, with high pressure in place and plenty of sunshine, we should see temperatures warm back up into the low 20s. These warm temperatures look like they’ll continue into next week as an upper ridge of high pressure builds over our region.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 14 to 26 C; lows, 2 to 11 C.