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Here We Go Again? I Don’t Think So

TABLE 1. JUNE MONTHLY AVERAGES (C)

Dauphin

Brandon

Winnipeg

High Low

22.4

23.5

23.3

9.1

9.8

10.7

Mean

15.8

16.6

17.0

Precip (mm)

87.1

75.7

89.5

The Weather Vane is prepared by Daniel Bezte, a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the University of Winnipeg. Daniel has taught university-level classes in climate and weather and currently operates a computerized weather station at his home near Birds Hill Park, on 10 acres he plans to develop into a vegetable and fruit hobby farm.

Contact him with your questions and comments at [email protected]

It seems like the month of May carried on from how April ended: lots of rain! After what appeared to be the perfect start to spring, things took a little turn for the worse in May. After a cool, wet start to May it looked like things were going to revert quickly back to the warm, dry spring weather we had come to enjoy and expect. Temperatures during the middle of the month were more like the middle of summer, as daily highs in most places pushed into the upper 20s. Then during the last week and a half of May things turned cooler and wet – really, really wet!

Several storm systems affected agricultural Manitoba in late May. The unstable pattern brought heavy rains and thunderstorms, and when all was said and done, all three of our main regions reported total precipitation amounts of around 160 millimetres – nearly three times more than the long-term average.

With the cool start to the month, followed by the warm spell in the middle of the month, and then near-average temperatures to end the month, the overall temperatures during May ended up coming in fairly close to average. Central and eastern regions were right on average, with Winnipeg recording a mean monthly temperature of 12.1 C, 0.1 C above average. It was a little cooler over western regions, with both Brandon and Dauphin recording a mean monthly temperature of 10.1 C, about 1 C below average for Dauphin and 1.7 C below average for Brandon.

Overall the month of May came in near to slightly below average, temperature-wise, and well above average when it came to precipitation. Looking back at the long-range forecasts, it’s a tough call once again as to who had the best prediction. All our main forecasters called for above-average amounts of precipitation. The Old Farmer’s Almanac will have to get the final nod in the precipitation department as it called for well above-average amounts. The Old Farmer’s Almanac and Environment Canada also called for below-average temperatures. The Canadian Farmers’ Almanac and we here at the Co-operator called for near-average temperatures.

So, I guess who was right depends on where you are. Those over western regions can give the nod to EC and the Old Farmer’s Almanac while those over eastern regions can give credit to the Canadian Farmers’ Almanac and the Co-operator. I think this is the first time all four forecasts were basically correct!

Now, what does this mean for June? I know I have the advantage once again with a late forecast, but if you believe me, I haven’t changed my June forecast since I came up with it on June 1. It looks like everyone except the Canadian Farmers’ Almanac is calling for our wet weather to continue, with a call for above-average amounts of precipitation during June. The Canadian Farmers’ Almanac is predicting nearaverage amounts of precipitation for June.

Looking at temperatures, this time the Old Farmer’s Almanac is the odd one out. It calls for below-average temperatures for June while the Canadian Farmers’ Almanac is calling for nearaverage temperatures. Both EC and we here at the Co-operator are being a little more optimistic, with a call for near-to above-average temperatures for the month. Even with the cooler start to the month and a forecast for continued unsettled temperatures, I feel that the second half of the month will see warmer and drier conditions move in.

Even though I poked a little fun at my earlier forecast of a hot, dry spring and summer, I still feel that we will see some very warm conditions this summer along with being drier than average. While we are currently in a very active weather pattern, in the past this pattern would have come with temperatures running well below average. This year this same active pattern is accompanied by near-average temperatures. I feel once we pull out of this pattern over the next two weeks, we will really see the heat build back in, but as usual, only time will tell.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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