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Goodbye May, Hello Summer

How does the old saying go: “In like a lion out like a lamb?” Yeah, right – May definitely came in like a lion, with a storm bringing rain, snow and cold temperatures on the last day of April and continuing into the first day of May. With the cold start to the month and several periods of wet, cold weather, it’s not surprising that the month as a whole ended up being cold and wetter than average. The question is, just how cold and wet was it?

Looking back at the temperature records for the month, both Brandon and Winnipeg came in below average. Winnipeg came in around 1 C below average and it was even cooler out west, with Brandon having a mean monthly temperature that was nearly 2 C below average.

With such a cold start to the month it is not surprising that the mean temperatures for May came in below average, but I think what made May stick out was the real lack of any sustained warm weather. With the exception of a five-day period in the middle of the month where we did see several days of sunny, warm weather, the month seemed all about storm systems that brought clouds, showers and then windy, cold conditions.

With all the storm systems affecting the region it’s also not surprising that precipitation during the month was above average. Following a similar pattern to temperatures, the Winnipeg region saw near-to only slightly aboveaverage amounts of precipitation during May. Farther west things were wetter. In the Brandon region they saw precipitation amounts that were nearly twice as wet than usual.

Now that May is in the history books, it’s time to look ahead and see what June and the rest of the summer might have in store for us.

DON’T WAIT FOR RECORD HIGHS

With a cool, wet start to June many of us are starting to think, “Oh no, here we go again.” While the rest of the world seems to be breaking all sorts of heat records we seem to be jinxed and are set to have yet another cool, wet summer. According to Environment Canada June is going to end up seeing nearto slightly above-average temperatures and precipitation. As the summer progresses, EC predicts temperatures will continue to warm and that July and August will end up seeing well-above-average temperatures. Along with the warm temperatures, EC expects southern regions to

see above-average amounts of precipitation while more northerly sections will be dry. In an unusual statement, it’s even hinted that the higher amounts of precipitation will be due to a larger-than-average number of severe thunderstorms.

Over at theOld Farmer’s Almanacthings look a little better, at least in regards to precipitation. It predicts a cooler-than- average June followed by near-average temperatures in July and August – sounds good so far. Precipitation will be near average in June, according to them, but will be well below average during July and near to slightly below average in August. Usually a dry July could cause all sorts of problems, but I think this year most of us would more than welcome a dry July, especially if it is accompanied by near-average temperatures.

Our next long-range forecast er is theCanadian Farmers’ Almanac.As usual, its style of forecasting leaves a lot of room for interpretation. For June it appears that it calls for near-to above-average temperatures along with aboveaverage amounts of precipitation, with several calls for severe weather. July looks to be on the cool and wet side with a number of comments about unsettled weather. Finally, August will be warmer than average with near-average amounts of precipitation.

MY CALL

My forecast is very similar to Environment Canada’s. I think we’ll finally start to see aboveaverage temperatures this June, but it’s going to take until the second half of the month before we see them. June and July are our wettest months for precipitation, and while what we get this year will seem significant, when all is said and done it will probably come in near average for June. During July, we’ll continue to see a warming trend with temperatures coming in above average. Along with the warm temperatures we will see plenty of chances for thunderstorms, which will bring nearto above-average amounts of rain. Finally, I think August will start off with above-average temperatures and then transition to more average conditions during the second half of the month. Precipitation will also continue to be around average, with some areas seeing above-average amounts while other areas will be dry, due to localized thunderstorm activity.

As usual, only time will tell when it comes to these weather forecasts, but however the weather does play out this summer I hope it ends up being exactly as you need!

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Lookingbackatthetemperaturerecords forthemonth,bothBrandonand Winnipegcameinbelowaverage.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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