Forecast: Warmer, with a chance of showers

Issued June 3, 2019: Covering the period from June 5 to 12

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies this spring during the 90 days ending May 27. With the exception of the foothills west of Calgary and extreme southeastern Manitoba, no regions saw more than 100 mm of precipitation. In fact, most locations received less than 50 mm, and a good part of the region stretching from Regina to Fort St. John reported less than 20 mm during this time period.

Last week’s forecast played out fairly close to what the weather models were predicting with one major exception. The area of low pressure that tracked southeastward through our region last Friday didn’t bring much in the way of clouds or showers, but it did open the door for a very unseasonably cold air mass to move in last weekend, especially over eastern regions. With the cool air in place, the stage was set for some locations to see not just one night of frost, but two.

This forecast period should feel a little more summerlike, but there is a chance of another shot of fairly cool air later this period. To start off, it looks like we will be between lows on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures look to be mild, with highs in the mid-20s and overnight lows in the low to mid-teens. The models hint at some shower or thundershower activity moving through early Thursday, with the best chance of any precipitation found across areas south of Highway 1.

By Friday a large area of low pressure is forecast to develop over Montana, then drift northward through Saskatchewan over the weekend. It looks like we will see fairly strong southerly winds develop, which should help to pull some warm, humid air across our region. Friday looks to be the warmest day, with high forecast to be in the upper 20s with possibly a few 30s. Saturday will be a little cooler due to an increase in cloud thanks to an approaching north-south-oriented cold front. We could see some showers and thundershowers with this front late Saturday before it pushes off to the east early on Sunday.

For much of next week, the area of low pressure that drifts northward through Saskatchewan, is forecast to meander around Hudson Bay. This will put us back into the cool northeasterly flow starting on Monday and lasting until Thursday. Expect daytime highs to only be in the 18 to 20 C range with overnight lows dropping into the 4 to 7 C range.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 19 to 28 C; lows, 6 to 15 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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