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Forecast: Warmer weather returns

Covering the period from September 9 to 16

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the 30 days ending Sept. 2. It was a wet period over the northern third of the agricultural Prairies, stretching from southeast Manitoba all the way up to far-northern Alberta. The wettest location was in southeastern Manitoba, just east of Winnipeg.

For last week’s forecast the weather models did a pretty darned good job. We definitely saw the cool-down and there were plenty of scattered showers, with central and eastern regions seeing a bit more compared to western regions. The big question is whether we will continue to see cooler-than-average conditions — or will we see a return to above-average temperatures?

The weather models have been fairly consistent, but with some slight deviations in the medium-range forecast over the last week or so. That means confidence in this forecast is relatively high but with just a little twinge of uncertainty. After a chilly start to the school year, it does look like we will see a building ridge of high pressure begin pushing in from the west. This should bring mainly sunny skies from Wednesday (Sept. 9) right through to Saturday (Sept. 12). The sunny skies along with increasing southerly winds will help boost daytime highs from the upper teens on Wednesday into the mid-20s by Saturday.

Over the weekend the weather models show an area of low pressure crossing northern Manitoba. This low will drag a cold front through central and southern regions on Sunday. Depending on the timing of the cold front, these regions may see the odd thundershower on Sunday. Temperatures will definitely cool down behind the front, with daytime highs on Sunday and Monday only expected to be in the mid-teens and overnight lows around 5 C.

Good news is that this cool-down looks to be short lived, as high pressure begins to rebuild across our region on Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in a return to mild temperatures. Daytime highs are forecast to move back into the low 20s with overnight lows falling to around the 8 to 10 C mark.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 15 to 24 C; lows, 3 to 12 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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