Forecast: Warm weather with increasing humidity

Covering the period from May 27 to June 3

Here we see the percentage of average precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies during the period of April 1 to May 20. It has been a dry start to the growing season, with most regions reporting below- to well-below-average amounts. It will be interesting to see how much this changes across Alberta with widespread rains falling from May 21 to 23.

The main area of low pressure that the models forecasted to impact our region during the last forecast period did materialize, but it ended up taking a much more westerly route than expected. In fact, the low retrograded or moved from east to west a little bit. This meant the rainfall from this system fell in Alberta, and most thunderstorms occurred in Saskatchewan. For us, it was just windy and warm for the most part.

Confidence in the overall timing of different weather systems during this forecast period is low. The weather models have been persistent with the overall weather pattern over the next week or two, but are jumping around in regard to the timing and strength of various smaller-scale weather features. With that said, here is how it appears the weather will play out.

A couple of weak areas of low pressure are forecast to track by to our north between May 27 and 29. Southern and central regions will stay on the warm south side of these lows. The warm temperatures, combined with the instability of the lows, mean we can expect to see a mix of sun and clouds along with a chance of the odd shower or thundershower.

Over the weekend, weak high pressure will build in, bringing sunny skies and continued mild temperatures. There will be some cooler air to our northeast, but right now it looks like the warmer air will win out. Expect daytime highs to be in the low to mid-20s, with overnight lows in the lower teens.

The weather models then show a strong area of low pressure developing to our northwest around the beginning of June. This low looks to stay to our northwest, but it will help to pump up some very warm air into our region along with higher humidities. By mid-week it looks like we could see the first 30 C day, with dew points rising into the upper teens to around 20 C by the end of the week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 15 to 27 C; lows, 3 to 12 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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