Forecast: Warm, humid, chance of thunderstorms

Covering the period from July 29 to August 5

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies so far this growing season, as a percentage of the long-term average. South-central and most of eastern Saskatchewan, along with south-central Manitoba, has been drier than average, with western regions seeing near- to above-average amounts.

Overall, the weather models seem to have a pretty good handle on the general weather pattern across our region. The last forecast worked out pretty well, with the usual differences in some of the timings of systems, and as always it can be difficult to predict just when or where thunderstorms will develop.

For this forecast period, it looks like the warm/hot/humid weather will continue as upper ridging looks to remain in place across central North America. After a slight cool-down to begin the week, warm air will build back in by the start of this forecast period. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies, with daytime highs in the upper 20s to low 30s and overnight lows falling into the upper teens. Humidity levels will start off comfortable, with dew points around 15 C on Wednesday, but the weather models show dew points increasing to around 20 to 23 C by the weekend. Winds look to be light during this period, making for some uncomfortable conditions by the weekend. A weak system tracking through our region over the weekend may trigger the odd thunderstorm, but a large outbreak of severe weather is not anticipated at this time, and of course, the exact timing or placements of any storms that do develop is highly uncertain.

The hot, humid weather is forecast to continue right through much of the first week of August (Aug. 2-8). The weather models do not show any strong areas of low pressure impacting our region during this period. This means we should expect sunny to partly cloudy skies with daytime highs continuing to be in the upper 20s to low 30s, overnight lows only cooling down into the upper teens, and dew points continuing to run near the 20 C mark. With all the heat and humidity, the odd thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but just like earlier in the forecast, no major low-pressure systems look to impact our region, meaning any storms that do develop will be isolated.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 21 to 30 C; lows, 12 to 17 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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