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Forecast: Warm and unsettled weather lays ahead

Issued July 8, 2019: Covering the period from July 10 to July 17

This map shows the 30-day accumulated precipitation across the Prairies ending June 13. At first glance it looks like southern Manitoba, and especially eastern regions, received significant amounts of precipitation during this period, but as we enter what’s typically the wettest period of the year, these amounts are low. Most areas saw less than 40 mm, with western regions reporting less than 20 mm — less than half of what we might expect at this time of year. Last weekend’s slow-moving rain event should help to boost these amounts, especially across western and extreme southern regions.

Last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what the weather models predicted. For this forecast period it looks like the area of low pressure that brought the unsettled, stormy weather to much of southern and central Manitoba during the first half of this week will have finally moved off to the east. Weak high pressure is forecast to move in on Wednesday, bringing mainly sunny skies along with daytime highs in the mid- to upper 20s.

For Thursday, the weather models show a weak area of low pressure cutting across central Manitoba. This system will bring a mix of sun and clouds along with the chance of a few showers or thundershowers. The best chance for any rain will be over central regions, closest to the path of the low. A cold front trailing behind the low may help to trigger some stronger thunderstorms overnight Thursday and into the early part of Friday.

Weak high pressure looks to dominate our weather over the weekend. This will bring sunny to partly cloudy skies along with warm temperatures. Daytime highs are forecasted to be in the upper 20s, with overnight lows in the mid-teens. With the warm temperatures and higher humidity levels we can expect to see some widely scattered thundershowers develop both on Saturday and Sunday.

On Monday, a more organized area of low pressure is forecast to track from southern Alberta into north-central Manitoba. Ahead of this system we could see a better chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms before the system pulls out later in the day. Unsettled but warm conditions look to persist on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, with daytime highs continuing to run in the upper 20s and a fairly good chance of scattered afternoon and evening thundershowers or storms each day.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 22 to 31 C; lows, 10 to 17 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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