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Forecast: Slowly moving back toward spring

Issued March 13, 2017 – Covering the period from March 15 to March 22, 2017

Well, I did not do the best job with last week’s forecast. The winter storm ended up being much stronger than expected and when that happens, the system kind of takes control over the overall weather pattern, rewriting the forecast. The one thing that did occur as expected was the cold arctic high- pressure system that moved in, bringing with it some very cold weather.

For this forecast period it looks like early spring-like weather will move back in, with temperatures returning to more typical mid- to late-March readings. By Wednesday, the cold arctic high will finally be moving off to the east, while to our west we will see a building ridge of high pressure. As our winds become more westerly we should see temperatures really start to warm up. Western regions should see daytime highs push above freezing on Wednesday with eastern regions following on Thursday.

An area of low pressure is forecast to ride over the top of the ridge late on Thursday, tracking into northern Manitoba. We will likely see increasing clouds with the chance of some showers or wet snow as the system passes by. Weak high pressure should then bring sunny skies for Friday and Saturday, along with daytime highs near or just slightly above freezing.

The weather models then show another area of low pressure tracking across north-central Manitoba on Sunday. This system will once again bring a mixed bag of precipitation to areas south of the Interlake, with snow to the north. Depending on the timing of this system, driving conditions could become tough with the possibility of freezing rain. Once this system moves by, we will see arctic high pressure slowly push by to our northeast. This will keep our region dry with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will cool down a little bit with daytime highs from Monday to Wednesday expected to be around -5 C.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -8 to +4 C; lows, -21 to -8 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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