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Forecast: Seasonable temperatures ahead

Covering the period from August 19 to August 26

There are several ways of looking at precipitation and moisture; this time we’ll look at soil moisture levels as a percentage of normal soil moisture across the Prairies as of Aug. 10. A large portion of the Prairies is experiencing soil moisture levels running lower than 40 per cent of average. The only areas with above-average amounts are over central Alberta and far-northern Alberta.

As the summer of 2020 begins to wind down, the medium-range weather models point to seasonable temperatures to end the month, with no signs of any large cool-downs or “tastes of fall” — at least for now.

To begin this forecast period, the weather models show an area of low pressure pushing in from the west. This will bring cloudy conditions on Wednesday (Aug. 19), along with the chance of a few showers or thundershowers. Temperatures look mild ahead of this system but will cool down on Thursday and Friday as the system deepens over northeastern Manitoba, dragging cool air southward in the counter-clockwise flow around the low.

Over the weekend (Aug. 22-23), the weather models show high pressure to our north and northeast, with low pressure developing to our southwest. This will place us in a fairly strong west to northwesterly flow. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies with maybe the odd afternoon shower. Temperatures look to be seasonable, with daytime highs forecast to be in the low to mid-20s and overnight lows dropping to the low teens.

For the first half of next week (Aug. 24-26), it looks like the low to our southwest will slowly intensify and begin to drift to the northeast. This will cause our winds to shift to the south, allowing warmer and more humid air to push in. Daytime highs are forecast to climb into the mid- to upper 20s with overnight lows rising into the mid-teens. Skies look to remain mostly clear during this period before we see increasing clouds along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms during the second half of the week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 20 to 28 C; lows, 8 to 14 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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