Forecast: Milder with a chance of rain

Covering the period from May 13 to May 20

This weather graphic comes to us from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service and shows the global surface air temperature anomalies for April 2020. April was very warm across a large part of Siberia as well as Greenland. It also jumps out that much of central North America was colder than average, with the coldest region found just to our west and northwest.

Last week’s weather outlook turned out to be remarkably accurate — way to go, weather models! The only piece that was slightly off was the Alberta low that was forecast to affect southern Manitoba last weekend and into the first part of this week. That low moved in a little quicker and mostly tracked through southern Saskatchewan. Now, on to this week’s outlook.

Good news! I am getting more and more confident that we will see a return to average to possibly above-average temperatures over the next week or two. It looks like we will break out of the northerly flow in which we’re currently stuck, and will see a westerly to even southwesterly flow develop. While this will bring warmer temperatures, a southwesterly flow can often mean more chances for rain.

During the second half of this week, the cold area of arctic high pressure will finally weaken and move off to the east. This will allow mild air to start moving in. Expect plenty of sunshine, with daytime highs warming into the mid- to upper teens by Friday. Over the long weekend, it looks like we will see sunny to partly cloudy skies as an area of low pressure tracks through northern Manitoba and a weak disturbance moves through the Dakotas. Daytime highs will continue to warm, with low 20s a good possibility depending on the amount of sunshine. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the 6 to 10 C range.

The weather models then show a fairly strong area of low pressure developing to our southwest around Monday and tracking quickly northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system does have the potential to bring significant rain along with maybe the first thundershowers of the season. As usual, that is still a long way off, so confidence in this is low.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 10 to 25 C; lows, -1 to +9 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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