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Forecast: Mild weather to continue

Issued November 27, 2017: Covering the period from November 29 to December 6

This “map” is a graph showing the trend in overnight lows or minimum temperatures for Dauphin in January from 1944 to the present. Looking at the graph you can see that there has been a general trend to warmer minimum temperatures, especially since the 1960s. The red dashed line is the linear trend line for the data.

Last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what the weather models predicted, with the exception of the possible major winter storm that the models were hinting at for late this week.

It seems, according to the weather models, that we are heading into a fairly quiet weather pattern over the next week or two, with little in the way of significant weather expected.

This forecast period will begin with the main storm track continuing to be found running across north-central Canada. With this storm track we will continue to see cold air trapped well to our north, allowing temperatures across our region to remain well above average.

There will be several weak systems tracking through over the next week. With each system, we will see a small bump in temperatures ahead of the system, followed by a small cool-down as the system passes by. We should see daytime highs on most days in the -5 to 0 C range, with overnight lows from -5 to -10 C. Little in the way of significant precipitation is expected with any of these systems during this period.

Early next week the weather models are showing a storm system organizing to our southwest. Confidence in this system is very low at this time. The latest model run shows this system winding itself up over Colorado on Tuesday before quickly moving through southern Minnesota on Wednesday, keeping any significant weather well to our south. While confidence is low, we always need to keep an eye on any hints of a Colorado low.

Looking further ahead, the weather models continue to keep us mostly dry, with temperatures continuing to run near the top end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: -14 to 0 C, Lows: -24 to -9 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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