Forecast: Is a big warm-up in the weather coming next week?

Covering the period from April 22 to April 29

This map shows the per cent of average precipitation that fell across the Prairies during the 30-day period ending April 14. Across Manitoba, precipitation was near to above average over eastern, southwestern and northwestern regions, with below-average amounts over central regions. Southern Saskatchewan was very dry, along with much of southern and central Alberta.

A little bit of good news for those of you who are tired of the cold weather: The models are finally showing some summer-like or at least spring-like temperatures moving in, but — oh, you knew that there was going to be a “but”!

After a mild start to the week, the weather models show an area of low pressure tracking through central Manitoba early on Wednesday. Most of the precipitation from this low should stay to our north, though central and eastern areas might see some light snow to start off the day. Skies should then quickly clear, but temperatures will cool down a little, with daytime highs forecast to be around 5 C.

Cool and slightly unsettled conditions will then stick around until the weekend as a couple of weak areas of low pressure slide by to our south and cold arctic high pressure drifts through northern Manitoba. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies, the odd shower or flurry and daytime highs in the 4 to 7 C range with overnight lows around -6 C. By Sunday we should see mainly sunny skies and the start of a significant warming trend as a ridge of high pressure begins to build to our west.

This ridge is forecast to build, then push eastward during the first half of next week (April 27-29). Under this ridge we will see plenty of sunshine along with very warm temperatures. Currently, the weather models forecast daytime highs approaching 25 C in some areas by Tuesday. Now, here comes the “but”: Confidence is very low in this part of the forecast, as the models have just introduced this feature. During the second half of the week, a strong storm system is forecast to develop over Montana, then drift through the Dakotas and southern Manitoba on Thursday and Friday. Ahead of this system we could see rain and even some thunderstorms. Behind the low the models show cold air pouring in, turning the rain into snow. Let’s hope the weather models are wrong.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 6 to 17 C; lows, -5 to +5 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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