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Forecast: Hints of warmer and drier weather ahead

Covering the period from September 30 to October 9, 2019

This map shows the amount of precipitation that fell across the Prairies from Sept. 18 to 25. This is the period that saw an anomalously warm and humid air mass move in across southern and central Manitoba, eventually resulting in thunderstorms and general heavy rains that brought over 100 mm to some regions.

It’s looking like the wet September weather is going to continue right up to the end of the month as a very winter-like weather pattern continues across the region. While the overall weather pattern is behaving much like a winter pattern, it’s missing one thing: cold air, or at least, unseasonably cold air. Last week’s forecast played out very close to what the weather models predicted, with the only exception being the Alberta clipper-like system that brought widespread rains late last Thursday and Thursday night.

By the time you are reading this, a strong Colorado low should have tracked just south of Manitoba, spreading more rain across southern and south-central parts of the province. A trailing trough of low pressure will bring unsettled conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week as cool high pressure begins to build southward. Expect partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies along with scattered showers and maybe the odd wet flurry or two, especially over western and northern regions. Daytime highs will struggle to make it into the 8 to 10 C range with overnight lows falling to within a degree or two of the freezing mark. These cool and unsettled conditions are expected to last until Thursday.

Cool arctic high pressure will finally build in by Friday, bringing mainly sunny skies and continued cool temperatures. With clear skies it looks pretty certain that we’ll see frost across most regions by Friday morning. This cool area of high pressure will then move off to the east as an area of low pressure begins to build to our southwest on Saturday. The flow around the departing high and developing low will give us a good southerly flow on Saturday, bringing with it milder air. By Sunday the weather models show the low moving across North Dakota, spreading clouds and showers over southern regions of Manitoba on Sunday.

Behind this low we should see a short cool-down before milder air begins to build back in toward the middle of next week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 9 to 19 C; lows, -2 to +7 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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